Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CNXC
Even the conservative scenario ($113.36) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$25.63 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -9.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 10.1%/yr | 8.5% | $113.36 |
| Base case | 13.1%/yr | 7.5% | $181.13 |
| Optimistic | 16.1%/yr | 6.5% | $289.45 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $307.81 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$25.63
Market-Implied Growth
-9.1%/yr
vs +13.2% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$181.13
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CNXC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $479.1M · 0.06B shares · net debt $4.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$181.13
+606.7% vs $25.63
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 13.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $25.63; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $259 | $301 | $357 | $436 | $554 |
| 6.5% | $190 | $216 | $247 | $288 | $342 |
| 7.5% | $145 | $161 | $181 | $205 | $236 |
| 8.5% | $112 | $124 | $137 | $153 | $172 |
| 9.5% | $87.76 | $96.29 | $106 | $117 | $130 |
