TGM's two-stage DCF values Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) between $16.63 and $32.39 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $23.01. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$31.79 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +21.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11.0%/yr | 9.9% | $16.63 |
| Base case | 14.0%/yr | 8.9% | $23.01 |
| Optimistic | 17.0%/yr | 7.9% | $32.39 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $26.93 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$31.79
Market-Implied Growth
+21.2%/yr
vs +14.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$16.63 – $32.39
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CMG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.3B · 1.28B shares · net debt $4.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$23.01
-27.6% vs $31.79
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 14.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $31.79; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.9% | $29.41 | $32.33 | $35.92 | $40.42 | $46.24 |
| 7.9% | $23.95 | $25.92 | $28.26 | $31.08 | $34.53 |
| 8.9% | $19.97 | $21.38 | $23.01 | $24.92 | $27.17 |
| 9.9% | $16.96 | $18.00 | $19.19 | $20.55 | $22.12 |
| 10.9% | $14.59 | $15.39 | $16.29 | $17.30 | $18.45 |
