Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG)'s fair value in a range of $12.37 – $28.41 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $29.88 sits above that range — by these conservative assumptions it looks richly valued; the reverse-DCF below is the better lens for a high-growth name.
Reverse DCF: at today's $29.88, the market is pricing in roughly +15.0%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of +30.0%. The price assumes a slowdown from its track record — a potential value signal if growth holds.
Current Price
$29.88
Fair-Value Range
$12.37 – $28.41
Market-Implied Growth
+15.0%/yr
vs +30.0% 5Y actual
CMG DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $1.3B · 1.28B shares · net debt $4.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$12.37
-58.6% vs $29.88
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $29.88; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $16.27 | $17.30 | $18.51 | $19.96 | $21.73 |
| 9.0% | $13.46 | $14.16 | $14.96 | $15.91 | $17.02 |
| 10.0% | $11.31 | $11.81 | $12.37 | $13.02 | $13.76 |
| 11.0% | $9.63 | $9.99 | $10.40 | $10.86 | $11.38 |
| 12.0% | $8.27 | $8.54 | $8.85 | $9.18 | $9.56 |
About Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., along with its affiliated companies, oversees the ownership and daily running of Chipotle Mexican Grill eateries. By February 15, 2022, its global presence included roughly 3,000 restaurant locations spread across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and other parts of Europe. The company was established in 1993 and maintains its principal office in Newport Beach, California.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Restaurants
- CEO
- Scott Boatwright