TGM's two-stage DCF values Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) between $15.88 and $31.23 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $22.08. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$36.34 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +23.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.7%/yr | 9.8% | $15.88 |
| Base case | 12.7%/yr | 8.8% | $22.08 |
| Optimistic | 15.7%/yr | 7.8% | $31.23 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $25.74 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$36.34
Market-Implied Growth
+23.9%/yr
vs +12.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$15.88 – $31.23
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CMG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.3B · 1.28B shares · net debt $4.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$22.08
-39.3% vs $36.34
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $36.34; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.8% | $28.31 | $31.19 | $34.74 | $39.21 | $45.04 |
| 7.8% | $22.98 | $24.91 | $27.21 | $29.98 | $33.39 |
| 8.8% | $19.11 | $20.49 | $22.08 | $23.94 | $26.15 |
| 9.8% | $16.19 | $17.21 | $18.37 | $19.69 | $21.22 |
| 10.8% | $13.90 | $14.68 | $15.55 | $16.54 | $17.65 |
