Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CJMB
Even the conservative scenario ($11.94) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $11.94 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $15.14 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $21.39 |
Current Price
$2.40
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$15.14
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CJMB (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.5M · 0.00B shares · net cash $2.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$15.14
+530.8% vs $2.40
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $2.40; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $19.45 | $21.79 | $24.91 | $29.27 | $35.82 |
| 6.5% | $15.64 | $17.05 | $18.80 | $21.06 | $24.06 |
| 7.5% | $13.10 | $14.03 | $15.14 | $16.49 | $18.19 |
| 8.5% | $11.29 | $11.94 | $12.69 | $13.59 | $14.66 |
| 9.5% | $9.93 | $10.41 | $10.95 | $11.58 | $12.31 |
