Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CHSCN
Even the conservative scenario ($1,062.45) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $1,062.45 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $1,416.91 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $2,109.95 |
Current Price
$24.41
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$1,416.91
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CHSCN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.0B · 0.01B shares · net debt $2.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$1416.91
+5705.0% vs $24.41
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $24.41; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $1895 | $2154 | $2500 | $2983 | $3708 |
| 6.5% | $1473 | $1628 | $1823 | $2073 | $2406 |
| 7.5% | $1191 | $1294 | $1417 | $1567 | $1755 |
| 8.5% | $990 | $1062 | $1146 | $1245 | $1364 |
| 9.5% | $840 | $892 | $953 | $1022 | $1103 |
