Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CHRD
Even the conservative scenario ($442.02) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$138.66 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -13.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $442.02 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $614.08 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $852.73 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $189.79 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$138.66
Market-Implied Growth
-13.7%/yr
vs +39.0% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$614.08
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CHRD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $916.2M · 0.06B shares · net debt $1.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$614.08
+342.9% vs $138.66
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $138.66; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $815 | $923 | $1068 | $1270 | $1574 |
| 6.5% | $638 | $703 | $784 | $888 | $1028 |
| 7.5% | $520 | $563 | $614 | $677 | $755 |
| 8.5% | $436 | $466 | $501 | $542 | $592 |
| 9.5% | $374 | $396 | $421 | $450 | $483 |
