Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CHR
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Cheer Holding, Inc. right now — free cash flow has been negative in recent years. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 9.5% | $14.74 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 8.5% | $17.01 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 7.5% | $19.92 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $989.86 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$1.49
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$17.01
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CHR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $8.5M · 0.03B shares · net cash $232.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$17.01
+1041.6% vs $1.49
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $1.49; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $19.40 | $20.54 | $21.97 | $23.80 | $26.23 |
| 7.5% | $17.34 | $18.09 | $18.99 | $20.09 | $21.46 |
| 8.5% | $15.87 | $16.40 | $17.01 | $17.73 | $18.60 |
| 9.5% | $14.78 | $15.16 | $15.60 | $16.11 | $16.69 |
| 10.5% | $13.93 | $14.22 | $14.55 | $14.92 | $15.34 |
