TGM's two-stage DCF values Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) between $160.07 and $307.55 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $215.14. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$133.23 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -7.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $160.07 |
| Base case | 3.1%/yr | 7.5% | $215.14 |
| Optimistic | 6.1%/yr | 6.5% | $307.55 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 28, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $390.99 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$133.23
Market-Implied Growth
-7.7%/yr
vs +0.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$160.07 – $307.55
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CHKP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.1B · 0.10B shares · net debt $172.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$215.14
+61.5% vs $133.23
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $133.23; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $279 | $314 | $360 | $425 | $522 |
| 6.5% | $223 | $243 | $270 | $303 | $348 |
| 7.5% | $185 | $199 | $215 | $235 | $260 |
| 8.5% | $158 | $168 | $179 | $192 | $208 |
| 9.5% | $138 | $145 | $153 | $162 | $173 |
