TGM's two-stage DCF values Chemed Corporation (CHE) between $370.61 and $719.65 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $504.92. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$520.27 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +4.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.1%/yr | 8.5% | $370.61 |
| Base case | 4.1%/yr | 7.5% | $504.92 |
| Optimistic | 7.1%/yr | 6.5% | $719.65 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 28, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $610.53 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$520.27
Market-Implied Growth
+4.8%/yr
vs -5.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$370.61 – $719.65
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CHE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $299.5M · 0.01B shares · net cash $22.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$504.92
-3.0% vs $520.27
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $520.27; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $654 | $735 | $843 | $994 | $1221 |
| 6.5% | $522 | $571 | $632 | $710 | $814 |
| 7.5% | $434 | $467 | $505 | $552 | $610 |
| 8.5% | $372 | $394 | $420 | $451 | $488 |
| 9.5% | $325 | $341 | $360 | $382 | $407 |
