TGM's two-stage DCF values Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. (CHCI) between $26.12 and $46.51 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $34.66. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$18.75 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +1.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $26.12 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $34.66 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $46.51 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $58.65 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$18.75
Market-Implied Growth
+1.3%/yr
vs +24.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$26.12 – $46.51
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CHCI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $8.1M · 0.01B shares · net cash $30.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$34.66
+84.8% vs $18.75
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $18.75; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $44.61 | $50.01 | $57.19 | $67.24 | $82.32 |
| 6.5% | $35.83 | $39.06 | $43.09 | $48.28 | $55.19 |
| 7.5% | $29.99 | $32.11 | $34.66 | $37.77 | $41.65 |
| 8.5% | $25.84 | $27.32 | $29.05 | $31.10 | $33.54 |
| 9.5% | $22.74 | $23.82 | $25.06 | $26.49 | $28.16 |
