TGM's two-stage DCF values Cognyte Software Ltd. (CGNT) between $5.14 and $6.89 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $5.77. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$8.83 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +16.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.5% | $5.14 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 11.5% | $5.77 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 10.5% | $6.89 |
Current Price
$8.83
Market-Implied Growth
+16.2%/yr
vs -2.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$5.14 – $6.89
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CGNT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $27.6M · 0.07B shares · net cash $116.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$5.77
-34.7% vs $8.83
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $8.83; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $6.43 | $6.68 | $6.96 | $7.28 | $7.65 |
| 10.5% | $5.89 | $6.08 | $6.29 | $6.52 | $6.79 |
| 11.5% | $5.46 | $5.61 | $5.77 | $5.94 | $6.15 |
| 12.5% | $5.11 | $5.22 | $5.35 | $5.49 | $5.64 |
| 13.5% | $4.81 | $4.91 | $5.01 | $5.12 | $5.24 |
