Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CDNS
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($133.17) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$285.47 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +43.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 12.0%/yr | 10.8% | $79.11 |
| Base case | 15.0%/yr | 9.8% | $101.47 |
| Optimistic | 18.0%/yr | 8.8% | $133.17 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $145.49 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$285.47
Market-Implied Growth
+43.1%/yr
vs +15.0% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$101.47
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CDNS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.2B · 0.28B shares · net cash $521.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$101.47
-64.5% vs $285.47
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 15.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $285.47; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.8% | $123 | $131 | $142 | $155 | $170 |
| 8.8% | $105 | $111 | $118 | $127 | $137 |
| 9.8% | $91.54 | $96.19 | $101 | $108 | $115 |
| 10.8% | $81.10 | $84.66 | $88.63 | $93.11 | $98.20 |
| 11.8% | $72.73 | $75.51 | $78.60 | $82.02 | $85.86 |
