TGM's two-stage DCF values Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) between $307.82 and $656.05 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $445.27. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$621.61 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +24.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 14.3%/yr | 8.5% | $307.82 |
| Base case | 17.3%/yr | 7.5% | $445.27 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $656.05 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $270.02 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$621.61
Market-Implied Growth
+24.8%/yr
vs +20.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$307.82 – $656.05
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CASY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $495.0M · 0.04B shares · net debt $2.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$445.27
-28.4% vs $621.61
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 17.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $621.61; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $605 | $692 | $807 | $968 | $1210 |
| 6.5% | $464 | $516 | $581 | $664 | $775 |
| 7.5% | $370 | $404 | $445 | $495 | $558 |
| 8.5% | $304 | $327 | $355 | $388 | $427 |
| 9.5% | $254 | $271 | $291 | $314 | $341 |
