Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) between $272.95 and $595.81 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $397.22. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$872.39 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +32.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11.9%/yr | 8.5% | $272.95 |
| Base case | 14.9%/yr | 7.5% | $397.22 |
| Optimistic | 17.9%/yr | 6.5% | $595.81 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $291.92 | |
Current Price
$872.39
Market-Implied Growth
+32.9%/yr
vs +14.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$272.95 – $595.81
model output — not a price target
CASY DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CASY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $495.0M · 0.04B shares · net debt $2.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$664.96
-23.8% vs $872.39
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 14.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $872.39; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $952 | $1070 | $1227 | $1448 | $1779 |
| 6.5% | $723 | $790 | $875 | $983 | $1128 |
| 7.5% | $572 | $614 | $665 | $727 | $805 |
| 8.5% | $465 | $493 | $526 | $565 | $612 |
| 9.5% | $386 | $406 | $428 | $454 | $485 |
About Casey's General Stores, Inc.
Casey's General Stores, Inc., including its various subsidiaries, manages and operates a widespread chain of convenience stores across the United States, primarily under the "Casey's" and "Casey's General Store" banners. These retail locations provide a broad spectrum of products and services designed for everyday needs. Their food offerings are extensive, featuring freshly prepared items like pizza, donuts, a variety of breakfast dishes, and sandwiches. The beverage selection is equally diverse, ranging from soft drinks, energy drinks, and bottled water to juices, coffee, tea, and dairy items, as well as alcoholic options such as beer, wine, and spirits. Customers can also purchase an assortment of snacks, candies, packaged baked goods, and other grocery essentials, alongside tobacco and nicotine products. Beyond food and drink, the stores stock various non-food items including health and beauty aids, automotive supplies, electronic accessories, and household goods. For motorists, self-service motor fuel, encompassing both gasoline and diesel, is readily available. Complementary services provided include ATMs, lottery and prepaid card sales, and car wash facilities. To support its extensive retail network, the company also operates its own distribution centers. Founded in 1959, Casey's General Stores, Inc. is headquartered in Ankeny, Iowa.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- CEO
- Darren Rebelez