TGM's two-stage DCF values Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) between $273.41 and $596.81 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $397.89. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$871.00 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +32.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11.9%/yr | 8.5% | $273.41 |
| Base case | 14.9%/yr | 7.5% | $397.89 |
| Optimistic | 17.9%/yr | 6.5% | $596.81 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 31, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $280.88 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$871.00
Market-Implied Growth
+32.8%/yr
vs +14.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$273.41 – $596.81
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CASY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $495.0M · 0.04B shares · net debt $2.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$397.89
-54.3% vs $871.00
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 14.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $871.00; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $542 | $619 | $723 | $868 | $1086 |
| 6.5% | $415 | $461 | $520 | $595 | $694 |
| 7.5% | $330 | $361 | $398 | $443 | $499 |
| 8.5% | $270 | $292 | $317 | $346 | $382 |
| 9.5% | $226 | $241 | $259 | $280 | $304 |
