Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CAMT
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($42.72) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$126.97 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +51.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $25.12 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $33.43 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $42.72 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 29, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $32.56 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$126.97
Market-Implied Growth
+51.5%/yr
vs +21.7% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$33.43
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CAMT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $91.7M · 0.05B shares · net debt $342.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$33.43
-73.7% vs $126.97
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $126.97; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $40.63 | $43.27 | $46.29 | $49.77 | $53.82 |
| 10.5% | $34.79 | $36.79 | $39.04 | $41.59 | $44.49 |
| 11.5% | $30.14 | $31.70 | $33.43 | $35.36 | $37.52 |
| 12.5% | $26.35 | $27.59 | $28.95 | $30.46 | $32.12 |
| 13.5% | $23.21 | $24.22 | $25.31 | $26.51 | $27.82 |
