A meaningful DCF fair value isn't available for The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) — its free-cash-flow and net-debt profile makes a standard discounted-cash-flow model unreliable (common for loss-makers and high-net-debt or recently-public companies), and no analyst DCF is published. Explore your own assumptions with the editable model below.
What would today's price require?
$116.13 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +48.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.8%/yr | 10.1% | N/A |
| Base case | 10.8%/yr | 9.1% | N/A |
| Optimistic | 13.8%/yr | 8.1% | $12.52 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 12, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $69.88 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$116.13
Market-Implied Growth
+48.2%/yr
vs +12.1% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
N/A
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CAKE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $86.6M · 0.05B shares · net debt $1.9B
Estimated Fair Value
N/A
These assumptions imply no positive equity value — try a higher growth or lower discount rate.
