TGM's two-stage DCF values Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH) between $203.64 and $416.84 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $285.69. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$229.12 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +5.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.9%/yr | 8.5% | $203.64 |
| Base case | 9.9%/yr | 7.5% | $285.69 |
| Optimistic | 12.9%/yr | 6.5% | $416.84 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 30, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $349.34 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$229.12
Market-Implied Growth
+5.1%/yr
vs +9.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$203.64 – $416.84
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CAH (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.5B · 0.23B shares · net debt $4.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$285.69
+24.7% vs $229.12
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $229.12; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $379 | $429 | $497 | $591 | $732 |
| 6.5% | $297 | $327 | $365 | $413 | $478 |
| 7.5% | $242 | $262 | $286 | $315 | $351 |
| 8.5% | $203 | $217 | $233 | $252 | $275 |
| 9.5% | $174 | $184 | $196 | $209 | $225 |
