BYD Company Limited (BYDDY) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for BYDDY
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor BYD Company Limited right now — free cash flow is currently depressed by a heavy investment cycle while revenue keeps growing. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$9.67 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -0.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $16.39 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $22.92 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $31.99 |
Current Price
$9.67
Market-Implied Growth
-0.9%/yr
vs +31.0% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$22.92
model output — not a price target
BYDDY DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BYDDY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $5.6B · 9.08B shares · net debt $11.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$41.59
+330.1% vs $9.67
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $9.67; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $58.82 | $65.95 | $75.46 | $88.78 | $109 |
| 6.5% | $45.04 | $49.12 | $54.22 | $60.77 | $69.51 |
| 7.5% | $35.96 | $38.52 | $41.59 | $45.34 | $50.02 |
| 8.5% | $29.56 | $31.26 | $33.25 | $35.61 | $38.43 |
| 9.5% | $24.82 | $26.01 | $27.37 | $28.94 | $30.78 |
About BYD Company Limited
BYD Co., Ltd. engages in new energy vehicles (NEVs), handset components and assembly services, rechargeable batteries, and photovoltaics business. The firm’s products and services include passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, rail transit, batteries, and electronics. It operates through the following segments: Mobile Handset Components, Assembly Service, and Other Products; Automobiles and Related Products and Other Products; and Others. The Mobile Handset Components, Assembly Service, and Other Products segment focus on the sale of mobile handset components such as housing, electronic components, assembly services, and medical protection products. The Automobiles and Related Products, and Other Products segment include automobiles and auto-related moulds and components and automobile leasing and after-sales services, rail transport related business, and medical protection products. The company was founded by Chuan Fu Wang on November 18, 1994 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Auto - Manufacturers
- CEO
- Chuan Fu Wang