TGM's two-stage DCF values Betterware de Mexico, S.A.P.I. de C.V. (BWMX) between $30.39 and $56.88 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $41.22. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$16.50 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -7.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.3% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.4%/yr | 10.3% | $30.39 |
| Base case | 10.4%/yr | 9.3% | $41.22 |
| Optimistic | 13.4%/yr | 8.3% | $56.88 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 2, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $31.50 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$16.50
Market-Implied Growth
-7.6%/yr
vs +10.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$30.39 – $56.88
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BWMX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $83.8M · 0.04B shares · net debt $210.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$41.22
+149.8% vs $16.50
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $16.50; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.3% | $51.61 | $56.17 | $61.67 | $68.45 | $77.00 |
| 8.3% | $42.82 | $45.97 | $49.67 | $54.07 | $59.37 |
| 9.3% | $36.29 | $38.59 | $41.22 | $44.27 | $47.83 |
| 10.3% | $31.27 | $33.00 | $34.95 | $37.16 | $39.70 |
| 11.3% | $27.28 | $28.62 | $30.12 | $31.79 | $33.67 |
