Why we don't show a single “fair value” for BTMD
Even the conservative scenario ($4.87) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$1.17 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -17.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.2%/yr | 12.5% | $4.87 |
| Base case | 7.2%/yr | 11.5% | $6.56 |
| Optimistic | 10.2%/yr | 10.5% | $8.86 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $10.60 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$1.17
Market-Implied Growth
-17.9%/yr
vs +3.8% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$6.56
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BTMD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $27.2M · 0.04B shares · net debt $82.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$6.56
+460.9% vs $1.17
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $1.17; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $7.96 | $8.47 | $9.06 | $9.73 | $10.52 |
| 10.5% | $6.83 | $7.22 | $7.65 | $8.15 | $8.71 |
| 11.5% | $5.92 | $6.23 | $6.56 | $6.94 | $7.36 |
| 12.5% | $5.18 | $5.43 | $5.69 | $5.98 | $6.31 |
| 13.5% | $4.57 | $4.77 | $4.98 | $5.21 | $5.47 |
