TGM's two-stage DCF values British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) between $67.56 and $138.87 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $91.69. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$56.21 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -6.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $67.56 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $91.69 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $138.87 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 21, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $183.32 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$56.21
Market-Implied Growth
-6.7%/yr
vs -9.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$67.56 – $138.87
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BTI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $11.9B · 2.16B shares · net debt $41.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$91.69
+63.1% vs $56.21
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $56.21; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $124 | $142 | $165 | $198 | $248 |
| 6.5% | $95.48 | $106 | $119 | $136 | $159 |
| 7.5% | $76.33 | $83.32 | $91.69 | $102 | $115 |
| 8.5% | $62.65 | $67.55 | $73.26 | $80.00 | $88.08 |
| 9.5% | $52.39 | $55.99 | $60.09 | $64.83 | $70.34 |
