Why we don't show a single “fair value” for BRLT
Even the conservative scenario ($2.86) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.8%/yr | 12.1% | $2.86 |
| Base case | 6.8%/yr | 11.1% | $3.28 |
| Optimistic | 9.8%/yr | 10.1% | $3.85 |
Current Price
$1.39
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$3.28
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BRLT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $9.2M · 0.06B shares · net cash $79.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$3.28
+136.5% vs $1.39
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $1.39; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.1% | $3.63 | $3.76 | $3.91 | $4.09 | $4.30 |
| 10.1% | $3.34 | $3.44 | $3.55 | $3.68 | $3.83 |
| 11.1% | $3.11 | $3.19 | $3.28 | $3.37 | $3.48 |
| 12.1% | $2.93 | $2.99 | $3.06 | $3.13 | $3.21 |
| 13.1% | $2.78 | $2.83 | $2.88 | $2.94 | $3.00 |
