Why we don't show a single “fair value” for BOOM
Even the conservative scenario ($23.80) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$5.96 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -15.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $23.80 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $30.63 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $38.26 |
Current Price
$5.96
Market-Implied Growth
-15.6%/yr
vs +25.0% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$30.63
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BOOM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $33.2M · 0.02B shares · net debt $58.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$30.63
+414.3% vs $5.96
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $5.96; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $36.55 | $38.72 | $41.20 | $44.06 | $47.39 |
| 10.5% | $31.75 | $33.39 | $35.24 | $37.33 | $39.72 |
| 11.5% | $27.92 | $29.21 | $30.63 | $32.21 | $33.99 |
| 12.5% | $24.81 | $25.83 | $26.95 | $28.19 | $29.56 |
| 13.5% | $22.23 | $23.06 | $23.96 | $24.94 | $26.02 |
