Why we don't show a single “fair value” for BMGL
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Basel Medical Group Ltd Ordinary Shares right now — free cash flow is currently depressed by a heavy investment cycle while revenue keeps growing. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.1%/yr | 8.5% | $21.64 |
| Base case | 5.1%/yr | 7.5% | $29.00 |
| Optimistic | 8.1%/yr | 6.5% | $40.76 |
Current Price
$3.17
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$29.00
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BMGL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.9M · 0.00B shares · net cash $2.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$29.00
+814.8% vs $3.17
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $3.17; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $37.20 | $41.66 | $47.59 | $55.90 | $68.35 |
| 6.5% | $29.96 | $32.63 | $35.97 | $40.26 | $45.98 |
| 7.5% | $25.13 | $26.89 | $29.00 | $31.58 | $34.79 |
| 8.5% | $21.68 | $22.92 | $24.35 | $26.05 | $28.09 |
| 9.5% | $19.10 | $20.01 | $21.04 | $22.23 | $23.62 |
