TGM's two-stage DCF values Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN) between $6.42 and $15.95 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $9.81. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$8.28 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +0.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.2% | $6.42 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 10.2% | $9.81 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 9.2% | $15.95 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $14.89 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$8.28
Market-Implied Growth
+0.1%/yr
vs -1.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$6.42 – $15.95
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BLMN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $134.0M · 0.09B shares · net debt $907.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$9.81
+18.5% vs $8.28
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $8.28; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.2% | $13.61 | $15.15 | $16.95 | $19.10 | $21.70 |
| 9.2% | $10.46 | $11.57 | $12.85 | $14.33 | $16.07 |
| 10.2% | $8.03 | $8.87 | $9.81 | $10.89 | $12.12 |
| 11.2% | $6.10 | $6.75 | $7.47 | $8.28 | $9.20 |
| 12.2% | $4.54 | $5.05 | $5.62 | $6.25 | $6.94 |
