Why we don't show a single “fair value” for BLDR
Even the conservative scenario ($168.05) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$75.28 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -7.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.1% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.2%/yr | 12.1% | $168.05 |
| Base case | 12.2%/yr | 11.1% | $223.82 |
| Optimistic | 15.2%/yr | 10.1% | $299.95 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $122.53 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$75.28
Market-Implied Growth
-7.8%/yr
vs +12.2% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$223.82
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BLDR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.7B · 0.11B shares · net debt $4.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$223.82
+197.3% vs $75.28
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $75.28; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.1% | $272 | $290 | $311 | $335 | $364 |
| 10.1% | $233 | $246 | $262 | $279 | $299 |
| 11.1% | $202 | $212 | $224 | $237 | $252 |
| 12.1% | $177 | $185 | $194 | $204 | $215 |
| 13.1% | $156 | $163 | $170 | $178 | $187 |
