Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) between $120.62 and $220.46 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $162.96. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$77.33 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -6.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.3% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.3%/yr | 12.3% | $120.62 |
| Base case | 6.3%/yr | 11.3% | $162.96 |
| Optimistic | 9.3%/yr | 10.3% | $220.46 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $108.92 | |
Current Price
$77.33
Market-Implied Growth
-6.9%/yr
vs +6.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$120.62 – $220.46
model output — not a price target
BLDR DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BLDR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.7B · 0.11B shares · net debt $4.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$188.89
+144.3% vs $77.33
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $77.33; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.3% | $239 | $251 | $263 | $278 | $296 |
| 10.3% | $204 | $212 | $221 | $232 | $244 |
| 11.3% | $176 | $182 | $189 | $196 | $205 |
| 12.3% | $154 | $158 | $163 | $169 | $175 |
| 13.3% | $135 | $139 | $142 | $147 | $151 |
About Builders FirstSource, Inc.
Builders FirstSource, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, operates as a key supplier of construction resources across the United States. The company is involved in fabricating and distributing a wide array of building materials, prefabricated components, and specialized construction services, catering to a diverse clientele that includes professional homebuilders, subcontractors, renovation experts, and individual consumers. Its extensive product range encompasses foundational lumber and sheet goods, such as dimensional timber, plywood, and oriented strand board, primarily used for on-site residential framing. Furthermore, Builders FirstSource manufactures factory-assembled elements like wood and steel floor and roof trusses, wall panels, stair units, and engineered wood products. Complementing these, the company supplies windows, both internal and external door assemblies, various interior and exterior finishing trims, and bespoke items marketed under the Synboard brand. Additionally, the firm provides gypsum, roofing, and insulation solutions, including wallboards, ceiling materials, joint compounds, and finishes. Its offerings also extend to siding, metal, and concrete products, featuring vinyl, composite, and wood siding options, alongside exterior trims, other exterior finishes, metal studs, and cement-based items. Beyond these materials, Builders FirstSource furnishes other building essentials like cabinetry and hardware, and delivers value-added services such as comprehensive turn-key framing, shell construction, design consultation, and expert installation. Founded in 1998, the enterprise initially operated as BSL Holdings, Inc. before formally changing its name to Builders FirstSource, Inc. in October 1999. The company's corporate headquarters are situated in Dallas, Texas.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Construction
- CEO
- Peter Jackson