Why we don't show a single “fair value” for BELFB
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($94.46) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$256.04 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +40.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.7%/yr | 11.9% | $53.73 |
| Base case | 8.7%/yr | 10.9% | $70.90 |
| Optimistic | 11.7%/yr | 9.9% | $94.46 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $49.08 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$256.04
Market-Implied Growth
+40.4%/yr
vs +8.7% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$70.90
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BELFB (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $63.9M · 0.01B shares · net debt $139.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$70.90
-72.3% vs $256.04
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $256.04; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.9% | $85.63 | $91.27 | $97.78 | $105 | $114 |
| 9.9% | $73.56 | $77.76 | $82.51 | $87.95 | $94.22 |
| 10.9% | $64.08 | $67.30 | $70.90 | $74.95 | $79.53 |
| 11.9% | $56.44 | $58.98 | $61.78 | $64.89 | $68.36 |
| 12.9% | $50.16 | $52.20 | $54.43 | $56.87 | $59.57 |
