TGM's two-stage DCF values Balchem Corp (BCPC) between $71.39 and $134.57 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $96.42. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$166.04 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +20.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.2%/yr | 9.2% | $71.39 |
| Base case | 7.2%/yr | 8.2% | $96.42 |
| Optimistic | 10.2%/yr | 7.2% | $134.57 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $143.30 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$166.04
Market-Implied Growth
+20.3%/yr
vs +6.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$71.39 – $134.57
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BCPC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $146.1M · 0.03B shares · net debt $104.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$96.42
-41.9% vs $166.04
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $166.04; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $122 | $135 | $152 | $173 | $202 |
| 7.2% | $99.85 | $108 | $118 | $131 | $146 |
| 8.2% | $84.02 | $89.72 | $96.42 | $104 | $114 |
| 9.2% | $72.32 | $76.45 | $81.19 | $86.69 | $93.14 |
| 10.2% | $63.32 | $66.43 | $69.93 | $73.92 | $78.49 |
