Why we don't show a single “fair value” for BANL
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor CBL International Limited right now — free cash flow has been negative in recent years. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $12.03 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $14.62 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $18.22 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $16.34 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$4.48
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$14.62
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BANL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $519180 · 0.00B shares · net cash $10.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$14.62
+226.4% vs $4.48
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $4.48; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $17.65 | $19.29 | $21.47 | $24.52 | $29.10 |
| 6.5% | $14.98 | $15.96 | $17.19 | $18.76 | $20.86 |
| 7.5% | $13.21 | $13.85 | $14.62 | $15.57 | $16.75 |
| 8.5% | $11.95 | $12.40 | $12.92 | $13.54 | $14.29 |
| 9.5% | $11.00 | $11.33 | $11.71 | $12.14 | $12.65 |
