Why we don't show a single “fair value” for BAND
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($18.63) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$63.74 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +45.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 10.9%/yr | 12.5% | $7.26 |
| Base case | 13.9%/yr | 11.5% | $12.10 |
| Optimistic | 16.9%/yr | 10.5% | $18.63 |
Current Price
$63.74
Market-Implied Growth
+45.8%/yr
vs +13.9% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$12.10
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BAND (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $43.2M · 0.03B shares · net debt $377.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$12.10
-81.0% vs $63.74
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 13.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $63.74; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $16.21 | $17.72 | $19.44 | $21.42 | $23.74 |
| 10.5% | $12.87 | $14.02 | $15.30 | $16.76 | $18.42 |
| 11.5% | $10.22 | $11.11 | $12.10 | $13.20 | $14.44 |
| 12.5% | $8.05 | $8.76 | $9.54 | $10.40 | $11.35 |
| 13.5% | $6.25 | $6.83 | $7.45 | $8.14 | $8.89 |
