Why we don't show a single “fair value” for AVO
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Mission Produce, Inc. right now — free cash flow has been negative in recent years. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$12.75 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +52.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.2%/yr | 8.5% | $1.46 |
| Base case | 9.2%/yr | 7.5% | $2.15 |
| Optimistic | 12.2%/yr | 6.5% | $3.25 |
Current Price
$12.75
Market-Implied Growth
+52.0%/yr
vs +9.2% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$2.15
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AVO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $8.3M · 0.09B shares · net debt $36.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$2.15
-83.2% vs $12.75
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $12.75; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $2.93 | $3.35 | $3.91 | $4.70 | $5.88 |
| 6.5% | $2.24 | $2.49 | $2.81 | $3.22 | $3.76 |
| 7.5% | $1.78 | $1.95 | $2.15 | $2.39 | $2.70 |
| 8.5% | $1.46 | $1.57 | $1.71 | $1.87 | $2.06 |
| 9.5% | $1.21 | $1.30 | $1.39 | $1.51 | $1.64 |
