Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ASYS
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($4.68) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$17.83 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +50.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.5% | $3.47 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 11.5% | $3.91 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 10.5% | $4.68 |
Current Price
$17.83
Market-Implied Growth
+50.1%/yr
vs +1.5% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$3.91
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ASYS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $4.5M · 0.02B shares · net cash $17.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$3.91
-78.1% vs $17.83
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $17.83; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $4.37 | $4.54 | $4.73 | $4.95 | $5.21 |
| 10.5% | $4.00 | $4.12 | $4.27 | $4.43 | $4.62 |
| 11.5% | $3.70 | $3.80 | $3.91 | $4.03 | $4.17 |
| 12.5% | $3.45 | $3.53 | $3.62 | $3.72 | $3.82 |
| 13.5% | $3.25 | $3.32 | $3.39 | $3.46 | $3.55 |
