TGM's two-stage DCF values Asure Software, Inc. (ASUR) between $2.16 and $5.50 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $3.50. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$7.74 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +33.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 14.5%/yr | 8.5% | $2.16 |
| Base case | 17.5%/yr | 7.5% | $3.50 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $5.50 |
Current Price
$7.74
Market-Implied Growth
+33.3%/yr
vs +17.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$2.16 – $5.50
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ASUR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.7M · 0.03B shares · net debt $42.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$3.50
-54.8% vs $7.74
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 17.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $7.74; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $5.06 | $5.91 | $7.03 | $8.61 | $10.97 |
| 6.5% | $3.68 | $4.19 | $4.82 | $5.63 | $6.72 |
| 7.5% | $2.77 | $3.10 | $3.50 | $3.99 | $4.60 |
| 8.5% | $2.12 | $2.35 | $2.62 | $2.94 | $3.33 |
| 9.5% | $1.63 | $1.80 | $2.00 | $2.22 | $2.48 |
