TGM's two-stage DCF values Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) between $48.09 and $96.63 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $66.77. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$24.67 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -14.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.0%/yr | 8.5% | $48.09 |
| Base case | 6.0%/yr | 7.5% | $66.77 |
| Optimistic | 9.0%/yr | 6.5% | $96.63 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $79.72 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$24.67
Market-Implied Growth
-14.8%/yr
vs +2.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$48.09 – $96.63
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ARLP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $377.2M · 0.13B shares · net debt $394.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$66.77
+170.6% vs $24.67
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $24.67; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $87.67 | $99.02 | $114 | $135 | $167 |
| 6.5% | $69.21 | $76.02 | $84.52 | $95.45 | $110 |
| 7.5% | $56.91 | $61.39 | $66.77 | $73.33 | $81.52 |
| 8.5% | $48.14 | $51.28 | $54.94 | $59.26 | $64.44 |
| 9.5% | $41.57 | $43.87 | $46.50 | $49.53 | $53.06 |
