TGM's two-stage DCF values AppFolio Inc. (APPF) between $84.66 and $149.50 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $112.74. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$232.06 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +37.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 9.2% | $84.66 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 8.2% | $112.74 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 7.2% | $149.50 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 28, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $217.84 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$232.06
Market-Implied Growth
+37.1%/yr
vs +26.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$84.66 – $149.50
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for APPF (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $116.3M · 0.04B shares · net cash $69.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$112.74
-51.4% vs $232.06
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $232.06; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $143 | $158 | $177 | $202 | $236 |
| 7.2% | $117 | $126 | $138 | $152 | $171 |
| 8.2% | $98.34 | $105 | $113 | $122 | $133 |
| 9.2% | $84.76 | $89.55 | $95.05 | $101 | $109 |
| 10.2% | $74.35 | $77.94 | $82.00 | $86.61 | $91.90 |
