TGM's two-stage DCF values American Outdoor Brands, Inc. (AOUT) between $15.93 and $27.61 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $19.88. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$16.60 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -2.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $15.93 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $19.88 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $27.61 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $31.11 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$16.60
Market-Implied Growth
-2.6%/yr
vs -7.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$15.93 – $27.61
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AOUT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $11.3M · 0.01B shares · net cash $21.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$19.88
+19.8% vs $16.60
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $16.60; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $25.21 | $28.11 | $31.96 | $37.36 | $45.44 |
| 6.5% | $20.50 | $22.24 | $24.41 | $27.20 | $30.92 |
| 7.5% | $17.36 | $18.51 | $19.88 | $21.56 | $23.65 |
| 8.5% | $15.12 | $15.92 | $16.86 | $17.97 | $19.29 |
| 9.5% | $13.44 | $14.03 | $14.70 | $15.48 | $16.38 |
