TGM's two-stage DCF values Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMPH) between $50.02 and $97.76 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $69.24. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$25.13 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -5.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.7% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 10.7%/yr | 9.7% | $50.02 |
| Base case | 13.7%/yr | 8.7% | $69.24 |
| Optimistic | 16.7%/yr | 7.7% | $97.76 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $82.51 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$25.13
Market-Implied Growth
-5.8%/yr
vs +23.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$50.02 – $97.76
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AMPH (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $133.3M · 0.04B shares · net debt $440.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$69.24
+175.5% vs $25.13
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 13.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $25.13; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $88.81 | $97.95 | $109 | $124 | $142 |
| 7.7% | $72.02 | $78.11 | $85.37 | $94.16 | $105 |
| 8.7% | $59.93 | $64.24 | $69.24 | $75.11 | $82.09 |
| 9.7% | $50.82 | $54.00 | $57.62 | $61.77 | $66.58 |
| 10.7% | $43.72 | $46.14 | $48.86 | $51.92 | $55.41 |