TGM's two-stage DCF values Alcon Inc. (ALC) between $28.49 and $61.21 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $41.14. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$71.51 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +18.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.6%/yr | 8.6% | $28.49 |
| Base case | 6.6%/yr | 7.6% | $41.14 |
| Optimistic | 9.6%/yr | 6.6% | $61.21 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 28, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $76.26 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$71.51
Market-Implied Growth
+18.5%/yr
vs +6.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$28.49 – $61.21
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ALC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $972.0M · 0.49B shares · net debt $3.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$41.14
-42.5% vs $71.51
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $71.51; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.6% | $55.16 | $62.65 | $72.56 | $86.28 | $107 |
| 6.6% | $42.81 | $47.36 | $53.01 | $60.23 | $69.78 |
| 7.6% | $34.52 | $37.54 | $41.14 | $45.53 | $50.97 |
| 8.6% | $28.57 | $30.70 | $33.17 | $36.08 | $39.55 |
| 9.6% | $24.10 | $25.67 | $27.45 | $29.50 | $31.88 |
