TGM's two-stage DCF values AdaptHealth Corp. (AHCO) between $4.76 and $15.13 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $9.14. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$5.77 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +5.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.4%/yr | 12.0% | $4.76 |
| Base case | 9.4%/yr | 11.0% | $9.14 |
| Optimistic | 12.4%/yr | 10.0% | $15.13 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $48.57 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$5.77
Market-Implied Growth
+5.0%/yr
vs +7.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$4.76 – $15.13
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AHCO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $181.3M · 0.14B shares · net debt $1.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$9.14
+58.2% vs $5.77
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $5.77; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | $12.88 | $14.31 | $15.95 | $17.86 | $20.11 |
| 10.0% | $9.82 | $10.88 | $12.08 | $13.46 | $15.04 |
| 11.0% | $7.40 | $8.22 | $9.14 | $10.16 | $11.32 |
| 12.0% | $5.46 | $6.10 | $6.81 | $7.60 | $8.48 |
| 13.0% | $3.85 | $4.37 | $4.94 | $5.56 | $6.25 |
