TGM's two-stage DCF values Agilysys, Inc. (AGYS) between $48.05 and $90.19 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $64.27. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$99.61 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +28.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 13.4%/yr | 8.5% | $48.05 |
| Base case | 16.4%/yr | 7.5% | $64.27 |
| Optimistic | 19.4%/yr | 6.5% | $90.19 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $145.94 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$99.61
Market-Implied Growth
+28.1%/yr
vs +15.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$48.05 – $90.19
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AGYS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $46.2M · 0.03B shares · net cash $116.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$64.27
-35.5% vs $99.61
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 16.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $99.61; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $83.08 | $93.26 | $107 | $126 | $154 |
| 6.5% | $66.48 | $72.58 | $80.21 | $90.01 | $103 |
| 7.5% | $55.45 | $59.46 | $64.27 | $70.14 | $77.48 |
| 8.5% | $47.59 | $50.40 | $53.67 | $57.54 | $62.17 |
| 9.5% | $41.73 | $43.78 | $46.13 | $48.83 | $51.99 |
