Why we don't show a single “fair value” for AFCG
Even the conservative scenario ($18.26) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$3.31 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -18.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.1% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.1% | $18.26 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.1% | $24.70 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.1% | $32.67 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $7.66 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$3.31
Market-Implied Growth
-18.4%/yr
vs +22.2% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$24.70
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AFCG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $21.4M · 0.02B shares · net debt $58.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$24.70
+646.2% vs $3.31
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $3.31; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1% | $31.16 | $34.05 | $37.56 | $41.93 | $47.51 |
| 8.1% | $25.67 | $27.64 | $29.97 | $32.75 | $36.13 |
| 9.1% | $21.64 | $23.06 | $24.70 | $26.60 | $28.84 |
| 10.1% | $18.56 | $19.63 | $20.83 | $22.20 | $23.78 |
| 11.1% | $16.14 | $16.96 | $17.87 | $18.90 | $20.06 |
