TGM's two-stage DCF values Alliance Entertainment Holding Corp. (AENT) between $3.08 and $6.79 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $4.34. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$4.67 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +3.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $3.08 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $4.34 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $6.79 |
Current Price
$4.67
Market-Implied Growth
+3.3%/yr
vs -2.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$3.08 – $6.79
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AENT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $14.7M · 0.05B shares · net debt $72.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$4.34
-7.1% vs $4.67
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $4.67; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $6.03 | $6.95 | $8.17 | $9.89 | $12.46 |
| 6.5% | $4.54 | $5.09 | $5.78 | $6.66 | $7.84 |
| 7.5% | $3.54 | $3.90 | $4.34 | $4.87 | $5.54 |
| 8.5% | $2.83 | $3.08 | $3.38 | $3.73 | $4.15 |
| 9.5% | $2.29 | $2.48 | $2.69 | $2.94 | $3.23 |
