TGM's two-stage DCF values Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (ACLS) between $53.15 and $81.86 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $65.36. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$115.33 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +23.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.9%/yr | 12.5% | $53.15 |
| Base case | 7.9%/yr | 11.5% | $65.36 |
| Optimistic | 10.9%/yr | 10.5% | $81.86 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 1, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $60.35 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$115.33
Market-Implied Growth
+23.7%/yr
vs +4.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$53.15 – $81.86
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ACLS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $132.4M · 0.03B shares · net cash $143.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$65.36
-43.3% vs $115.33
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $115.33; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $75.46 | $79.16 | $83.38 | $88.24 | $93.91 |
| 10.5% | $67.27 | $70.08 | $73.23 | $76.80 | $80.87 |
| 11.5% | $60.74 | $62.93 | $65.36 | $68.06 | $71.11 |
| 12.5% | $55.40 | $57.15 | $59.06 | $61.18 | $63.52 |
| 13.5% | $50.97 | $52.39 | $53.93 | $55.61 | $57.46 |
