Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ABBNY
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($44.44) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$101.05 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +33.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.3%/yr | 10.2% | $24.71 |
| Base case | 5.3%/yr | 9.2% | $32.76 |
| Optimistic | 8.3%/yr | 8.2% | $44.44 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 7, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $33.39 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$101.05
Market-Implied Growth
+33.2%/yr
vs +5.3% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$32.76
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ABBNY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.7B · 1.82B shares · net debt $3.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$32.76
-67.6% vs $101.05
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $101.05; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.2% | $40.36 | $43.73 | $47.82 | $52.87 | $59.28 |
| 8.2% | $33.91 | $36.24 | $38.96 | $42.21 | $46.15 |
| 9.2% | $29.14 | $30.83 | $32.76 | $35.00 | $37.63 |
| 10.2% | $25.48 | $26.74 | $28.17 | $29.80 | $31.66 |
| 11.2% | $22.57 | $23.55 | $24.64 | $25.86 | $27.24 |
