ABB Ltd (ABBNY) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ABBNY
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($45.63) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$109.73 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +35.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.9%/yr | 10.2% | $25.39 |
| Base case | 5.9%/yr | 9.2% | $33.65 |
| Optimistic | 8.9%/yr | 8.2% | $45.63 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $33.31 | |
Current Price
$109.73
Market-Implied Growth
+35.4%/yr
vs +17.4% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$33.65
model output — not a price target
ABBNY DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ABBNY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.7B · 1.81B shares · net debt $3.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$37.94
-65.4% vs $109.73
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $109.73; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.2% | $48.84 | $52.08 | $56.01 | $60.88 | $67.06 |
| 8.2% | $40.75 | $42.88 | $45.38 | $48.36 | $51.98 |
| 9.2% | $34.79 | $36.26 | $37.94 | $39.90 | $42.20 |
| 10.2% | $30.22 | $31.27 | $32.46 | $33.81 | $35.36 |
| 11.2% | $26.62 | $27.39 | $28.25 | $29.22 | $30.31 |
About ABB Ltd
ABB Ltd, established in 1883 and headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland, operates as a global technology pioneer, delivering electrification, automation, robotics, and motion products and solutions. The company caters to a diverse international clientele across utilities, industrial, transportation, and infrastructure sectors. Its Electrification segment provides a comprehensive array of offerings, including electric vehicle charging infrastructure, renewable power solutions, modular substation packages, distribution automation products, various types of switchgear and panel boards, UPS systems, circuit breakers, measuring and sensing devices, control products, wiring accessories, and advanced intelligent home and building solutions. The Robotics & Discrete Automation segment specializes in industrial robots, specialized software, autonomous mobile robotics, and complete robotic solutions, alongside field services, spare parts, and digital support. This segment also incorporates programmable logic controllers, industrial PCs, servo motion control, advanced transport systems, and machine vision into its technological solutions. The Motion segment is dedicated to designing, manufacturing, and marketing drives, motors, generators, and traction converters, all of which are instrumental in fostering a low-carbon future for industries, urban environments, infrastructure projects, and transportation systems. Finally, ABB's Process Automation segment develops and supplies critical control technologies, sophisticated process control software, manufacturing execution systems, and a broad spectrum of sensing, measurement, and analytical instrumentation. This segment also provides marine propulsion systems and turbochargers, augmented by essential services such as remote monitoring, preventive maintenance, asset performance management, emission monitoring, and cybersecurity. The firm's expansive customer base encompasses a multitude of industries, including aluminum, automotive, battery manufacturing, buildings and infrastructure, cement, chemical, data centers, food and beverage, life sciences, marine, mining, oil and gas, ports, power generation, printing, pulp and paper, railway, smart cities, water management, and wind power.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Electrical Equipment & Parts
- CEO
- Morten Wierod