A meaningful DCF fair value isn't available for AAON, Inc. (AAON) — its free-cash-flow and net-debt profile makes a standard discounted-cash-flow model unreliable (common for loss-makers and high-net-debt or recently-public companies), and no analyst DCF is published. Explore your own assumptions with the editable model below.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.2% | N/A |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.2% | N/A |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.2% | N/A |
Current Price
$78.15
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
N/A
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AAON (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.1M · 0.08B shares · net debt $405.8M
Estimated Fair Value
N/A
These assumptions imply no positive equity value — try a higher growth or lower discount rate.
