Why we don't show a single “fair value” for VMC
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($110.55) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$258.52 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +34.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.4% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.1%/yr | 10.4% | $48.82 |
| Base case | 9.1%/yr | 9.4% | $74.12 |
| Optimistic | 12.1%/yr | 8.4% | $110.55 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $226.54 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$258.52
Market-Implied Growth
+34.6%/yr
vs +7.6% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$74.12
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for VMC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $735.1M · 0.13B shares · net debt $4.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$74.12
-71.3% vs $258.52
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $258.52; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.4% | $98.06 | $108 | $121 | $136 | $156 |
| 8.4% | $77.84 | $85.10 | $93.57 | $104 | $116 |
| 9.4% | $62.77 | $68.07 | $74.12 | $81.12 | $89.29 |
| 10.4% | $51.11 | $55.12 | $59.63 | $64.74 | $70.58 |
| 11.4% | $41.83 | $44.95 | $48.41 | $52.28 | $56.62 |
