Why we don't show a single “fair value” for LLY
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($105.79) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $38.59 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $66.74 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $105.79 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $439.07 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$1,123.13
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$66.74
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for LLY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.5B · 0.94B shares · net debt $35.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$66.74
-94.1% vs $1123.13
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $1123.13; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $99.55 | $117 | $141 | $174 | $224 |
| 6.5% | $70.60 | $81.24 | $94.54 | $112 | $134 |
| 7.5% | $51.36 | $58.36 | $66.74 | $76.98 | $89.77 |
| 8.5% | $37.68 | $42.57 | $48.27 | $55.00 | $63.07 |
| 9.5% | $27.45 | $31.03 | $35.12 | $39.83 | $45.32 |
