Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)'s fair value in a range of $9.63 – $480.94 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $1,144.03 sits above that range — by these conservative assumptions it looks richly valued; the reverse-DCF below is the better lens for a high-growth name.
Current Price
$1,144.03
Fair-Value Range
$9.63 – $480.94
Market-Implied Growth
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LLY DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $2.7B · 0.94B shares · net debt $35.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$9.63
-99.2% vs $1144.03
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $1144.03; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $21.08 | $24.08 | $27.63 | $31.89 | $37.10 |
| 9.0% | $12.81 | $14.86 | $17.23 | $20.00 | $23.27 |
| 10.0% | $6.51 | $7.97 | $9.63 | $11.52 | $13.70 |
| 11.0% | $1.56 | $2.63 | $3.83 | $5.18 | $6.70 |
| 12.0% | — | — | — | $0.25 | $1.36 |