TGM's two-stage DCF values The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) between $130.80 and $252.19 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $173.30. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$321.05 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +14.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.9% | $130.80 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.9% | $173.30 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.9% | $252.19 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 7, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $279.45 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$321.05
Market-Implied Growth
+14.2%/yr
vs -2.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$130.80 – $252.19
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $14.5B · 1.00B shares · net debt $54.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$173.30
-46.0% vs $321.05
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $321.05; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.9% | $224 | $248 | $277 | $313 | $359 |
| 7.9% | $181 | $197 | $215 | $238 | $266 |
| 8.9% | $149 | $160 | $173 | $189 | $207 |
| 9.9% | $125 | $133 | $143 | $154 | $166 |
| 10.9% | $105 | $112 | $119 | $127 | $137 |
