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The Home Depot, Inc. (HD)
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The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) DCF Valuation

Transparent DCF models put The Home Depot, Inc. (HD)'s fair value in a range of $185.57 – $293.06 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $321.33 sits above that range — by these conservative assumptions it looks richly valued; the reverse-DCF below is the better lens for a high-growth name.

Reverse DCF: at today's $321.33, the market is pricing in roughly +11.1%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of -3.4%. The price is betting on acceleration above its track record.

Price|PE Ratio|FCF Yield|All Metrics

Current Price

$321.33

Fair-Value Range

$185.57 – $293.06

Market-Implied Growth

+11.1%/yr

vs -3.4% 5Y actual

HD DCF Fair Value Calculator

Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.

5%/yr
Historical FCF CAGR: 3Y 2.9% · 5Y -3.4% · 10Y 5.9%
10%
2.5%
10yr

Base inputs: FCF $14.6B · 1.00B shares · net debt $54.4B

Estimated Fair Value

$185.57

-42.3% vs $321.33

Current price$321.33
Analyst DCF (FMP)$293.06

Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth

How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $321.33; red = below. Your current case is outlined.

WACC ↓ / Terminal →1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
8.0%$244$259$277$299$325
9.0%$202$212$224$238$255
10.0%$170$177$186$195$206
11.0%$144$150$156$163$171
12.0%$124$128$133$138$143