Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CI
Even the conservative scenario ($618.46) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$282.52 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -10.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.1%/yr | 8.5% | $618.46 |
| Base case | 11.1%/yr | 7.5% | $878.85 |
| Optimistic | 14.1%/yr | 6.5% | $1,295.07 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $1,847.21 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$282.52
Market-Implied Growth
-10.8%/yr
vs +11.1% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$878.85
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $8.7B · 0.26B shares · net debt $23.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$878.85
+211.1% vs $282.52
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $282.52; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $1176 | $1337 | $1551 | $1851 | $2301 |
| 6.5% | $914 | $1010 | $1131 | $1285 | $1492 |
| 7.5% | $739 | $803 | $879 | $972 | $1088 |
| 8.5% | $615 | $660 | $711 | $772 | $846 |
| 9.5% | $522 | $555 | $592 | $635 | $685 |
