CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Earnings Review
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. earnings review — the reported quarter's EPS and revenue against the Street's estimates, the forward outlook, margins, cash flow, and valuation reset as of August 14, 2026.
By TGMCharts Research · Data as of · Updated
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. posted EPS of $4.73 versus the $5.57 consensus (a -15.07% surprise) on revenue of $2.22B; whether it changed the thesis depends on the forward setup, not the headline.
The review ties the print to the durable trend: the TTM revenue change is 20.04%, operating margin is 38.12%, and the market pays 8.77x trailing earnings; next-quarter consensus is $3.22 EPS.
- CF Industries Holdings, Inc. posted EPS of $4.73 versus the $5.57 consensus — a surprise of -15.07%.
- Revenue was $2.22B against a $2.45B estimate — a revenue surprise of -9.31%.
- Trailing-twelve-month revenue change is 20.04% and EPS change is 76.50%.
- Operating margin is 38.12% and net margin is 27.12%.
- Next quarter consensus is $3.22 EPS on $1.94B revenue, with the next report due November 4, 2026.
Quarterly Setup
The reported quarter against the Street's estimates, plus the latest TTM trend behind it.
The Read
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. has reported, and this is the earnings review: what the quarter delivered against the Street's expectations, and what it means for the underlying business. Actual EPS landed at $4.73 against the $5.57 consensus — a surprise of -15.07% — on revenue of $2.22B versus a $2.45B estimate.
An earnings print only matters if it connects to the durable trend. The trailing-twelve-month revenue change is 20.04% while the TTM EPS change is 76.50%, so the rest of this review tests whether the quarter reinforced that direction across cash flow, margins, and the forward setup rather than simply clearing a bar.
Current compounder snapshot · CF
Live supporting context; not part of the article's frozen 2026-08-14 evidence snapshot.
- Score
- 13/100
- 10Y CAGR
- 5.1%
- Median YoY
- 4.8%
- YoY volatility
- σ 44.5pp· choppy
- Quarters ≥ 20%
- 11 of 40
- Negative quarters
- 16
- Valuation vs own 10Y history
- P/S 2.3x · 10Y median 2.2x · 65th percentile · as of Aug 17, 2026
How this score is computed
- Quarters at or above 20%: 11 of 40 → 11 of 40 pts
- Steadiness (typical swing 44.5pp) → 0 of 25 pts
- Pace (median 4.8% YoY) → 0 of 20 pts
- Latest quarter (17.6% YoY) → 2 of 15 pts
- Score: 13 of 100
Annualized revenue (TTM) · by quarter, last 40
Quarterly YoY revenue growth vs the 20% line
P/S multiple vs its 10Y median
The Quarter Reported
Start with the scorecard. CF Industries Holdings, Inc. posted EPS of $4.73 against the $5.57 analysts modeled, an EPS surprise of -15.07%, while revenue of $2.22B compared with the $2.45B consensus for a revenue surprise of -9.31%.
The two surprises together say more than either alone, because a revenue-led result is more durable than one carried by a tax item or a share-count effect on EPS. This section treats the print as a data point about execution against expectations; whether it changed the thesis is decided by the trend lines and the forward outlook below.
Earnings scorecard: reported vs expected
The quarter's actual EPS and revenue against the Street's consensus, with the forward-quarter setup.
CF TTM revenue Chart
TTM revenue keeps the quarterly review focused on the most recent four-quarter business base.
Latest revenue TTM growth: 20.04%.
Revenue TTM growth of 20.04% is the first quarterly-review checkpoint. It shows whether the latest reported periods are still adding to the business base.
Revenue And Earnings Direction
The TTM revenue change of 20.04% is most useful beside the net income change of 61.21%. When sales and earnings move apart, the review shifts from a growth story to a margin story. The EPS change of 76.50% then shows what the latest reporting cycle actually delivered per share after buybacks and mix.
CF TTM net income Chart
Net income TTM history checks whether revenue momentum is reaching the bottom line.
Latest net income TTM growth: 61.21%.
Net income TTM growth of 61.21% is the earnings-conversion check. If it diverges from revenue growth, the review should focus on margins rather than only sales.
CF EPS Chart
EPS connects reported earnings momentum to the per-share outcome.
Latest EPS TTM growth: 76.50%.
EPS TTM growth of 76.50% shows what the recent reporting cycle delivered per share. It is most useful beside revenue and margin data, not as a standalone verdict.
Cash Flow Conversion
Cash conversion is the honesty check on the earnings line. The free-cash-flow change of 6.88% either confirms the EPS result or challenges it, and an earnings review is incomplete when it reports a beat or miss without asking whether cash generation moved the same way.
CF TTM free cash flow Chart
Free cash flow TTM is the cash-conversion counterpoint to earnings momentum.
Latest FCF TTM growth: 6.88%.
Free-cash-flow TTM growth of 6.88% can confirm or challenge the earnings story. A quarterly review is incomplete if cash conversion is moving differently from EPS.
Margin Quality
Margin quality decides whether the revenue base is becoming more profitable. Operating margin is 38.12%, gross margin is 42.54%, and net margin is 27.12%. The margin chart belongs here because this is the section that explains why earnings can diverge from sales after a print.
CF operating margin
Operating margin shows whether the latest revenue base is becoming more or less profitable.
Operating margin (TTM): 38.12%. The bars below are individual quarters, so the latest bar can differ from this trailing-twelve-month figure.
Operating margin (TTM) of 38.12% is the quality read across the last four quarters. The review should become more cautious if growth is present but margin quality is fading.
Forward Outlook
The market trades on the next quarter, not the last one. Consensus models $3.22 in EPS and $1.94B in revenue for the coming quarter, with the next report due November 4, 2026. The forward setup is what turns a backward-looking print into a thesis: a result paired with a soft forward bar reads very differently from one paired with a rising one.
Comparing the just-reported quarter against that forward estimate is one way to test whether expectations are catching up to the business or running ahead of it. The TTM revenue change of 20.04% is the reference point; estimate uncertainty and reporting-basis differences remain limitations.
Valuation Reset
Valuation resets with every print. The market is paying 8.77x trailing earnings and the free-cash-flow yield is 10.49%. A quarter matters most when the valuation has not already priced every improvement in advance, so the multiple is the lens that decides how much the surprise should move the view.
CF P/E ratio Chart
P/E history keeps the quarterly review connected to what investors are paying for the updated fundamentals.
Latest P/E ratio: 8.77x.
The P/E ratio at 8.77x is the market's price on the quarterly evidence. Improving fundamentals matter more when the multiple does not already assume too much progress.
Bull/Bear Case
The bull case is that revenue, earnings, cash flow, and margins moved together this quarter while the valuation at 8.77x remains explainable against the forward setup. The bear case is a split between reported earnings and cash generation, or a forward bar that asks too much of the next print. The case work sits before the final read so the review does not end as a recap.
Bull and bear case
Quarterly support
- Revenue TTM growth of 20.04% supports the latest operating momentum.
- Net margin of 27.12% keeps the quarterly review connected to earnings quality.
Quarterly pressure
- Free-cash-flow TTM growth of 6.88% can weaken the read if cash conversion lags earnings.
- The valuation still has to be checked against a P/E ratio of 8.77x.
Final Read
The earnings review is useful only when the print, the trend lines, cash conversion, margin quality, the forward outlook, and the valuation reset tell a coherent story. The source snapshot is dated August 14, 2026. This TGMCharts Research note uses reported fundamentals, linked source pages, and chart exhibits only — a structured read on the reported quarter, not a forecast or personalized investment advice.
FAQ
Did CF beat or miss earnings estimates last quarter?
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. posted EPS of $4.73 against the $5.57 consensus — an EPS surprise of -15.07% — on revenue of $2.22B versus the $2.45B estimate, a revenue surprise of -9.31%.
What is the forward outlook for CF after the print?
Consensus models $3.22 in EPS on $1.94B in revenue for the coming quarter, with the next report due November 4, 2026. The TTM revenue change of 20.04% is the reference for judging whether that bar is conservative or demanding.
What would make this CF earnings review stale?
If the next data update materially changes the reported-quarter figures, forward estimates, margins, or valuation inputs, this note is corrected or withdrawn rather than left stale. Figures are as of August 14, 2026.
What would change our mind
- The next report due November 4, 2026 versus the $3.22 EPS consensus.
- Free-cash-flow TTM change versus the EPS TTM change of 76.50%.
- Operating margin or valuation moving away from 38.12% and 8.77x.
The bottom line
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. earnings-report review from TGMCharts Research: the reported quarter versus consensus, the forward setup, and what it means for the business — every figure checked against the company's reported data.
Read next: CF fundamentalsContinue with CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s full stock page.How we checked this researchShowHide
Data snapshot · By TGMCharts Research.
Every number in this note comes from data we compute and store ourselves from the company's reported figures, plus verbatim excerpts from its SEC filings. When a value isn't available we say so — we never fill gaps with estimates.
Latest filing excerpt
10-Q · filed 2026-08-06 · period 2026-06-30 · SEC EDGAR source
- “Lower sales volume resulted in a decrease in net sales of approximately $256 million.”
- “This resulted in an increase in net sales of approximately $588 million for the second quarter of 2026 compared to the second quarter of 2025.”
- “The project qualifies for tax credits under Section 45Q of the Internal Revenue Code (45Q Tax Credits), which provide a tax credit per metric ton of CO 2 captured and disposed of in secure geological storage.”
- “As a result of all these factors, global nitrogen fertilizer prices significantly increased in March of 2026 and remained elevated throughout most of the second quarter of 2026.”
Source pages
Exhibit sources
Research trail
Every number, checked
Every numeric or dated claim in this note was checked against our stored company data before publishing — each figure below links to the page it comes from.