Is Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) Fairly Valued?
Autodesk, Inc. valuation review using P/E, fair value, revenue growth, EPS growth, net margin, and TGMCharts chart exhibits as of July 10, 2026.
By TGMCharts Research · Data as of · Updated
Autodesk, Inc. does not get a one-metric verdict. The stock trades at 30.39x trailing earnings and the analyst DCF (FMP) reference is $136, so the valuation read depends on whether growth and margins support that price.
The core evidence is the relationship between price, earnings, fair value, and business support. Five-year revenue CAGR is 13.72%, five-year EPS CAGR is -0.85%, and net margin is 19.49%. Those facts decide whether the multiple is defensible or stretched.
- Autodesk, Inc. closed at $208 on July 10, 2026.
- Trailing P/E is 30.39x and price-to-sales is 5.89x.
- Analyst DCF (FMP) is $136 with margin of safety at -34.57%.
- Five-year revenue CAGR is 13.72% and five-year EPS CAGR is -0.85%.
- Earnings yield is 3.29% and net margin is 19.49%.
Valuation Setup
The market price, model anchor, growth support, and profitability facts behind the valuation read.
Autodesk Valuation Demands Rigorous Multi-Metric Analysis
Evaluating Autodesk, Inc. requires assessing whether the current market valuation has sufficient fundamental backing. As of July 10, 2026, the stock closed at $208, carrying a trailing price-to-earnings multiple of 30.39x. This premium market price sits above the independent analyst-DCF (FMP) fair value reference, resulting in a margin of safety of -34.57%.
To determine if this pricing is sustainable, this analysis integrates multiple fundamental dimensions. By examining the trailing P/E, price-to-sales, and earnings yield alongside multi-year revenue trends, EPS trajectories, and margin profiles, we can establish a comprehensive view of the stock's valuation landscape.
Decoupling Price and Earnings Multiples From Historical Benchmarks
The market currently prices the firm at a sales multiple of 5.89x, reflecting significant valuation expectations. Simultaneously, the trailing earnings yield stands at 3.29%, which highlights the high premium investors are paying for each dollar of generated profit. Comparing these valuation multiples against historical ranges reveals how much optimism is embedded in the current equity pricing.
ADSK P/E ratio Chart
The trailing earnings multiple is the main valuation exhibit because it connects the market price to reported earnings.
Latest P/E ratio: 30.39x as of July 10, 2026.
A P/E ratio of 30.39x has to be judged against the company's five-year EPS CAGR of -0.85%. If the multiple is high while EPS support is ordinary, the valuation thesis becomes more dependent on investor confidence than on fresh earnings power.
ADSK price-to-sales Chart
Price-to-sales gives a second valuation lens when margins and earnings can move around the cycle.
Latest price-to-sales ratio: 5.89x.
Price-to-sales at 5.89x is most useful beside net margin of 19.49%. A richer sales multiple is easier to defend when margin quality is durable rather than temporarily elevated.
Comparing Market Pricing Against Independent DCF Reference Points
A key structural benchmark is the analyst-DCF (FMP) fair value estimate, which stands at $136. With the actual market price at $208, the resulting margin of safety is negative at -34.57%. This gap suggests that the current market price exceeds the present value of projected cash flows under standard analyst assumptions, placing a heavier burden on future operational execution.
The valuation at a glance
Each input on its own line: what the stock costs against earnings and sales, the model's fair value and how far price sits from it, and the growth and margins behind the business.
ADSK earnings yield Chart
Earnings yield reframes valuation from an owner's-yield perspective rather than a multiple perspective.
Latest earnings yield: 3.29%.
The earnings yield of 3.29% is the counterweight to the P/E ratio. If the yield is thin relative to the quality and growth profile, the valuation case needs more help from future compounding.
Assessing Multi-Year Growth Trajectories Against Premium Pricing
To justify a premium earnings multiple, a business must demonstrate robust expansion. Over the last five years, revenue expanded at a 13.72% compound annual rate. However, the five-year EPS CAGR stands at -0.85%, showing a divergence between top-line expansion and long-term net earnings per share. This divergence indicates that while sales have steadily increased, bottom-line profitability over the five-year horizon has not moved in tandem, though trailing twelve-month trends show more recent positive momentum.
ADSK revenue
Revenue history tests whether the valuation is being supported by real business expansion.
Five-year revenue CAGR: 13.72%. This is endpoint-to-endpoint from the fiscal years shown — a depressed start year can inflate it, so read it against the recent bars.
Revenue growth is the business-expansion evidence behind the valuation read. A five-year revenue CAGR of 13.72% helps show how much of the valuation story is coming from company growth instead of only multiple expansion.
ADSK EPS
EPS history checks whether reported earnings are keeping pace with the market multiple.
Five-year EPS CAGR: -0.85%. This is endpoint-to-endpoint from the fiscal years shown — a depressed or negative start year can inflate it, so read it against the recent bars.
A five-year EPS CAGR of -0.85% is the clearest support figure for a P/E-based conclusion. If EPS growth slows while the multiple remains elevated, the article should become more cautious after refresh.
Profitability Margins as a Defense for High Sales Multiples
Operating efficiency can often offset a high sales multiple if the business converts revenue into net income at a high rate. The firm currently posts a net margin of 19.49% alongside its price-to-sales ratio of 5.89x. Evaluating this margin profile helps determine if the underlying profitability is strong enough to cushion the valuation if top-line growth begins to moderate.
ADSK net margin
Net margin shows whether the company has enough profitability quality to support its valuation.
Net margin (TTM): 19.49%. The bars below are annual fiscal years.
Net margin of 19.49% is a quality signal, not a valuation verdict by itself. It matters because a premium multiple is more defensible when margins are structurally strong and less defensible when margins are peaking.
Contrasting the Bull and Bear Perspectives on Current Pricing
The optimistic view rests on the firm's solid top-line execution, highlighted by a five-year revenue CAGR of 13.72% and a healthy net margin of 19.49%. Conversely, the cautious perspective points to a trailing P/E of 30.39x and a negative margin of safety of -34.57% relative to the analyst-DCF reference, suggesting that the current valuation leaves little room for operational missteps.
Bull and bear case
Valuation support
- Five-year revenue CAGR of 13.72% and five-year EPS CAGR of -0.85% support the business case.
- Net margin of 19.49% is the quality check behind the multiple.
Valuation pressure
- A P/E ratio of 30.39x can become demanding if EPS growth slows.
- The analyst-DCF (FMP) margin of safety at -34.57% should change the valuation read if it deteriorates after refresh.
Key Metrics That Would Invalidate the Current Valuation Read
Several factors could shift this fundamental outlook. A significant adjustment in the analyst-DCF (FMP) fair value of $136, or a sharp movement in the market price that alters the margin of safety, would require a reassessment. Additionally, any deceleration in the trailing twelve-month growth rates for revenue, net income, or free cash flow would weaken the core support for the current multiple.
Synthesis of Fundamentals and Market Expectations
In conclusion, the valuation profile of Autodesk, Inc. is highly dependent on the interplay between its premium market multiples, its profitability, and its growth trends. With a negative margin of safety relative to the analyst-DCF reference, the company must sustain its high operational efficiency and positive trailing growth to support its current pricing. This analysis is based entirely on verified financial data and does not constitute personalized financial advice.
FAQ
Is ADSK fairly valued?
Autodesk, Inc. trades at 30.39x trailing earnings with an analyst-DCF (FMP) margin of safety of -34.57%. The cleanest read comes from comparing that valuation to five-year revenue CAGR of 13.72% and five-year EPS CAGR of -0.85%.
What valuation metric matters most for ADSK?
This article anchors on P/E, fair value, margin of safety, price-to-sales, earnings yield, revenue growth, and EPS growth. No single metric is treated as a recommendation.
How often should this ADSK valuation view refresh?
We refresh this note after each daily market close, so the price, fair value, and every figure stay current. Numbers here are as of July 10, 2026.
What would change our mind
- A material move away from the analyst-DCF (FMP) reference of $136.
- A break in five-year EPS support, currently -0.85%.
- Margin quality drifting away from the latest net margin of 19.49%.
The bottom line
Autodesk, Inc. valuation research note from TGMCharts Research, grounded in precomputed fundamentals, chart exhibits, and a frozen claim ledger.
Read next: ADSK fundamentalsContinue with Autodesk, Inc.'s full stock page.How we checked this researchShowHide
Data snapshot · By TGMCharts Research.
Every number in this note comes from data we compute and store ourselves from the company's reported figures, plus verbatim excerpts from its SEC filings. When a value isn't available we say so — we never fill gaps with estimates.
Latest filing excerpt
10-Q · filed 2026-05-29 · period 2026-04-30 · SEC EDGAR source
- “We expect to recognize $ 5.38 billion or 69% of our remaining performance obligations as revenue during the next 12 months.”
- “We expect to recognize the remaining $ 2.42 billion or 31% of our remaining performance obligations as revenue thereafter.”
- “As of April 30, 2026, Autodesk had remaining performance obligations of $ 7.81 billion, which represents the total transaction price allocated to remaining performance obligations, which are generally recognized over the next three years.”
- “No other customer accounted for more than 10% of Autodesk's total net revenue or trade accounts receivable for each of the respective periods.”
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Every numeric or dated claim in this note was checked against our stored company data before publishing — each figure below links to the page it comes from.