TGM's two-stage DCF values DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc. (XRAY) between $7.14 and $19.37 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $11.38. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.4%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$10.46 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +1.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.4% required return — about in line with its track record.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.4% | $7.14 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.4% | $11.38 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.4% | $19.37 |
Current Price
$10.46
Market-Implied Growth
+1.0%/yr
vs +2.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$7.14 – $19.37
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for XRAY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $254.5M · 0.20B shares · net debt $2.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$11.38
+8.8% vs $10.46
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $10.46; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | $16.67 | $19.22 | $22.43 | $26.57 | $32.14 |
| 7.4% | $12.10 | $13.77 | $15.78 | $18.24 | $21.33 |
| 8.4% | $8.85 | $10.02 | $11.38 | $12.99 | $14.93 |
| 9.4% | $6.43 | $7.28 | $8.26 | $9.38 | $10.69 |
| 10.4% | $4.55 | $5.20 | $5.92 | $6.75 | $7.69 |
